2Q24 Small-Cap Recap—Royce
article 07-01-2024

2Q24 Small-Cap Recap

Why Earnings Will Fuel a Small-Cap Rebound

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An Ugh-ly Quarter for Small-Caps

2024’s second quarter saw the U.S. economy remain in expansion mode (now at 49 consecutive months and counting) while employment remained strong. Perhaps most important, inflation continued to moderate, keeping hope alive for at least one interest rate reduction from the Fed in 2024. Against this favorable backdrop, the spoils of equity market performance accrued to the biggest names as mega-cap mania rolled on.

In and of itself, strong performance for the market’s behemoths does not preclude the same for our chosen asset class. The small-cap Russell 2000 Index, however, finished the second quarter in the red. In what has become a familiar and unfortunate pattern over the last few years, quarterly returns were better the farther up the capitalization scale you went: The Russell Microcap Index lost -5.3%, and the Russell 2000 fell -3.3% while the large-cap Russell 1000 Index rose 3.6% and the mega-cap Russell Top 50 Index advanced 9.1%.

Bigger Was Better in 2Q24
Russell Index Returns, 3/31/24-6/30/24

Bigger Was Better in 2Q24

Past performance is no guarantee of future results.

And, while small-cap returns were in the black for the year-to-date ended 6/30/24, with the Russell 2000 gaining 1.7%, the Russell Microcap remained in the red, down -0.8%. In addition, both indexes were behind their larger peers, with the Russell 1000 up 14.2% and the Russell Top 50 gaining 22.1%. With the Russell 2000 trailing its large-cap counterpart by nearly 130 base points through the end of June, small-caps experienced their worst first six months to a year ever versus large-caps since each index’s inception on 12/31/78. The same was true for the spread between the Russell Microcap and the Russell 1000. Moreover, the Russell 1000 hit a new high 11 times in 2Q24 while the Russell 2000 finished June -12.8% off its prior peak on 11/8/21.

The key question, then, is, when will this long large-cap outperformance cycle end? We offer our thoughts on that critical issue below.

Small-Cap Value Goes Out of Style in 2Q24

With small-caps overall faring poorly in the quarter, the expectation would be for small-cap value to hold its value better than its growth sibling. This was not the case in 2Q24, however, as the Russell 2000 Value Index was down -3.6% while the Russell 2000 Growth Index declined -2.9%. This is a comparatively rare occurrence. In 62 down quarters since each index’s inception on 12/31/78, the Russell 2000 Value has underperformed in only 15 of them, or 24% of the time.

Looking at longer-term periods, the Russell 2000 value beat the Russell 2000 Growth for the 3- and 5-year periods ended 6/30/24 while small-cap growth had the advantage for the 1- and 10-year periods.

Elsewhere in Equities

Results outside the U.S. hewed to a similar pattern, though with a narrower spread and both small- and large-cap indexes finishing June in the black. The MSCI ACWI ex-USA Small-Cap Index was up 0.7% in 2Q24 versus a 1.4% gain for the MSCI ACWI ex-USA Large-Cap Index.

Returning stateside, the tech-laden Nasdaq enjoyed a fine quarter, up 8.5%—driven by the same mega-cap ‘Magnificent 7’ cohort of Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, Meta, Microsoft, Nvidia, and Tesla that dominated both the Russell 1000 and Russell Top 50. Interestingly, the S&P SmallCap 600 Index finished 2Q24 with a similar return—a loss of -3.1%—to the Russell 2000 Growth, even as the former serves as a rough proxy for small-cap quality because admittance requires companies to meet “investability and financial viability criteria,” including positive as-reported earnings over the most recent quarter and the most recent four quarters summed together. Needless to say, this was yet another data point to sum up a curious and confounding quarter.

The Small-Cap Sector Story

With the economy still growing—even as certain areas appeared to be plateauing or slowing—it was odd that defensive sectors detracted less from small-cap performance than their more economically sensitive cyclical siblings. Within the Russell 2000, the top detractors at the sector level in 2Q24 were Industrials, Health Care, Consumer Discretionary, and Information Technology. Consumer Staples was the only sector that made a positive contribution to quarterly returns, with Utilities and Communication Services being essentially flat.

A Challenging Quarter at the Sector Level
Russell 2000 Sector Detractors and Contributors for 2Q24

Context Is Key in Understanding Recent Performance

Past performance is no guarantee of future results.

The year-to-date story was brighter, though only marginally. Cyclicals finished in the black for the six-month period ended 6/30/24 while Defensives detracted. Four out of 11 sectors contributed to year-to-date results: Information Technology, Industrials, Energy, and Consumer Staples. The biggest detractors were Financials (thanks to a significant downdraft for banks) , Real Estate, Communication Services, and Consumer Discretionary.

The Market (Still) Runs on Earnings (Which Is Good News for Active Small-Cap Management)

We sympathize with those investors who are frustrated with the current extended period of small-cap underperformance, though our conviction that small-cap will recapture its historical role of outperformance remains as strong as ever. So, while pinning a date for the asset class’s renewed market leadership lies well beyond our own (and anyone else’s) expertise, we do know that all market cycles are finite, though the timing almost always tests the patience of investors in the underperforming area.

We have also been small-cap specialists with a long-term investment horizon for long enough to know that patience really is a virtue—and that finding attractively valued opportunities during periods of relative underperformance creates the foundation for rewarding long-term results.

Equally, if not more important is that active management within small-cap has done better—markedly so in some cases—over the last several years (and we are very pleased that this observation encompasses our major domestic Strategies). We also anticipate that active managers who focus on earnings growth remain best positioned for strong performance going forward. First, the Russell 2000 ended June with a near-record number of companies with no earnings.

Russell 2000 Percentage of Loss-Making Companies
The % of Loss-Making Companies in the Russell 2000, 12/31/84-6/30/24

Relative Valuations for Small- and Micro-Caps vs. Large Caps Are Near Their Lowest in 25 Years

1Last Twelve months’ earnings per share less than of equal to zero
Source: FactSet

Second, earnings acceleration is expected to be higher for small-cap companies than for large-cap businesses through the end of 2024.

Small-Cap’s Estimated Earnings Growth Is Expected to Be Higher in 2024 than Large-Cap’s
1-Year EPS Growth as of 6/30/24

An Up and Down Quarter for Stocks

Earnings per share (EPS) is calculated as a company’s profit divided by the outstanding shares of its common stock. The EPS Growth Estimates are the pre-calculated mean long-term EPS growth rate estimates by brokerage analysts. Long Term Growth (LTG) is the annual EPS growth that the company can sustain over the next 3 or 5 years. Both estimates are the average of those provided by analysts working for brokerage firms who provide research coverage on each individual security as reported by FactSet. All non-equity securities, investment companies, companies without brokerage analyst coverage are excluded. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.

As the U.S. economy sees an increase in the tangible benefits of reshoring, the CHIPS Act, and infrastructure improvements, select small-cap companies are poised to benefit in the form of robust earnings growth—which should create significant advantages for those active small-cap managers who focus on profitable companies and other fundamental measures of financial and operational strength.

Important Disclosure Information

Average Annual Total Returns as of 6/30/2024 (%)

  QTD1 1YR 3YR 5YR 10YR SINCE
INCEPT.
DATE ANNUAL
OPERATING EXPENSES
NET               GROSS
Small-Cap -1.84 14.68 4.73 10.42 8.27 N/A N/A  0.94  0.94
Dividend Value -3.61 17.01 5.14 8.82 6.91 8.57 05/03/04  1.34  1.61
Global Financial Services 1.38 22.00 0.92 8.29 7.03 7.98 12/31/03  1.57  1.99
International Premier -2.52 -1.85 -9.47 0.21 4.34 4.95 12/31/10  1.44  1.61
Micro-Cap -1.74 11.92 -0.27 11.13 5.89 10.37 12/31/91  1.24  1.25
Small-Cap Opportunity -1.51 9.44 0.88 13.52 8.71 11.82 11/19/96  1.23  1.23
Premier -4.28 8.30 3.33 8.40 7.54 11.10 12/31/91  1.19  1.19
Small-Cap Special Equity -3.50 3.14 3.79 8.11 5.79 8.39 05/01/98  1.22  1.22
Small-Cap Total Return -2.85 15.42 4.63 8.81 7.26 10.14 12/15/93  1.26  1.26
Small-Cap Value -6.31 12.80 4.64 7.45 4.67 8.52 06/14/01  1.49  1.62
Smaller-Companies Growth -2.86 7.59 -8.71 6.64 6.59 10.00 06/14/01  1.49  1.57
Capital Micro-Cap -1.56 11.98 -0.51 10.51 5.73 9.51 12/27/96  1.18  1.18
Capital Small-Cap -6.23 13.30 5.09 7.79 5.12 9.54 12/27/96  1.15  1.15
Russell 2000
-3.28 10.06 -2.58 6.94 7.00 N/A N/A  N/A  N/A
Russell 2500
-4.27 10.47 -0.29 8.31 7.99 N/A N/A  N/A  N/A
MSCI ACWI SC
-1.56 10.64 -0.75 7.31 6.23 N/A N/A  N/A  N/A
MSCI ACWI x USA SC
0.66 11.26 -1.45 6.13 4.44 N/A N/A  N/A  N/A
Russell Microcap
-5.27 5.96 -7.85 5.55 5.53 N/A N/A  N/A  N/A
Russell 2000 Value
-3.64 10.90 -0.53 7.07 6.23 N/A N/A  N/A  N/A
Russell 2000 Growth
-2.92 9.14 -4.86 6.17 7.39 N/A N/A  N/A  N/A
1 Not annualized.

All performance information reflects past performance, is presented on a total return basis, reflects the reinvestment of distributions, and does not reflect the deduction of taxes a shareholder would pay on Fund distributions or the redemption of Fund shares. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Investment return and principal value of an investment will fluctuate, so that shares may be worth more or less than their original cost when redeemed. Current performance may be higher or lower than performance quoted. Current month-end performance may be obtained at www.royceinvest.com. All performance and expense information reflects results of the Funds’ oldest share Class (Investment Class or Service Class, as the case may be). Price and total return information is based on net asset values calculated for shareholder transactions. Annual gross operating expenses reflect the Fund’s gross total annual operating expenses and include management fees, any 12b-1 distribution and service fees, other expenses, and any applicable acquired fund fees and expenses. Annual net operating expenses reflect contractual fee waivers and/or expense reimbursements. All expense information is reported as of the Fund’s most current prospectus. Royce & Associates has contractually agreed to waive fees and/or reimburse operating expenses, excluding brokerage commissions, taxes, interest, litigation expenses, acquired fund fees and expenses, and other expenses not borne in the ordinary course of business, to the extent necessary to maintain net operating expenses at or below: 1.34% for Royce Dividend Value Fund-Service Class; 1.44% for Royce International Premier Fund-Service Class; 1.24% for Royce Micro-Cap Fund Investment Class; and 1.49% for each the Royce Global Financial Services-Service Class, Small-Cap Value-Service Class, and Smaller-Companies Growth Funds-Service Class through April 30, 2025. Acquired fund fees and expenses reflect the estimated amount of the fees and expenses incurred indirectly by the Fund through its investments in mutual funds and other investment companies.

Service Class shares bear an annual distribution expense that is not borne by the Funds’ Investment Class. If such distribution expenses had been reflected for Funds showing Investment Class performance, returns would have been lower. Investments in securities of micro-cap, small-cap, and/or mid-cap companies may involve considerably more risk than investments in securities of larger-cap companies. (Please see “Primary Risks for Fund Investors” in the prospectus.) Certain Funds invest a significant portion of their respective assets in foreign companies that may be subject to different risks than investments in securities of U.S. companies, including adverse political, social, economic, or other developments that are unique to a particular country or region. (Please see “Investing in Foreign Securities” in the prospectus.) Therefore, the prices of securities of foreign companies in particular countries or regions may, at times, move in a different direction than those of securities of U.S. companies. (Please see “Primary Risk of Fund Investors” in the prospectus.) Certain Funds generally invest a significant portion of their assets in a limited number of stocks, which may involve considerably more risk than a more broadly diversified portfolio because a decline in the value of any of these stocks would cause their overall value to decline to a greater degree. A broadly diversified portfolio, however, does not ensure a profit or guarantee against loss. (See "Primary Risks for Fund Investors" in the respective prospectus.) Please read the prospectus carefully before investing or sending money.

This material is not authorized for distribution unless preceded or accompanied by a current prospectus. Please read the prospectus carefully before investing or sending money. The performance data and trends outlined in this article are presented for illustrative purposes only. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Historical market trends are not necessarily indicative of future market movements. Investments in securities of micro-cap, small-cap, and/or mid-cap companies may involve considerably more risk than investments in securities of larger-cap companies. (Please see "Primary Risks for Fund Investors" in the prospectus.) Investments in foreign companies may be subject to different risks than investments in securities of U.S. companies, including adverse political, social, economic, or other developments that are unique to a particular country or region. (Please see "Investing in International Securities" in the prospectus.)

Mr. Gannon’s thoughts and opinions concerning the stock market are solely his own and, of course, there can be no assurance with regard to future market movements. No assurance can be given that the past performance trends as outlined above will continue in the future. The performance data and trends outlined in this presentation are presented for illustrative purposes only. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Historical market trends are not necessarily indicative of future market movements.

Sector weightings are determined using the Global Industry Classification Standard ("GICS"). GICS was developed by, and is the exclusive property of, Standard & Poor's Financial Services LLC ("S&P") and MSCI Inc. ("MSCI"). GICS is the trademark of S&P and MSCI. "Global Industry Classification Standard (GICS)" and "GICS Direct" are service marks of S&P and MSCI.

Frank Russell Company (“Russell”) is the source and owner of the trademarks, service marks and copyrights related to the Russell Indexes. Russell® is a trademark of Frank Russell Company. Neither Russell nor its licensors accept any liability for any errors or omissions in the Russell Indexes and / or Russell ratings or underlying data and no party may rely on any Russell Indexes and / or Russell ratings and / or underlying data contained in this communication. No further distribution of Russell Data is permitted without Russell’s express written consent. Russell does not promote, sponsor or endorse the content of this communication. All indexes referenced are unmanaged and capitalization weighted. The Russell 2000 Index is an index of domestic small-cap stocks that measures the performance of the 2,000 smallest publicly traded U.S. companies in the Russell 3000 Index. The Russell 1000 Index is an unmanaged, capitalization-weighted index of domestic large-cap stocks. It measures the performance of the 1,000 largest publicly traded U.S. companies in the Russell 3000 Index. The Russell 2000 Value and Growth indexes consist of the respective value and growth stocks within the Russell 2000 as determined by Russell Investments. The Russell Top 50 Index measures the performance of the largest companies in the Russell 3000 Index. It includes approximately 50 of the largest securities based on a combination of their market cap and current index membership and represents approximately 40% of the total market capitalization of the Russell 3000 Index. The Russell Midcap® Index measures the performance of the mid-cap segment of the U.S. equity universe and is a subset of the Russell 1000® Index that includes approximately 800 of the smallest securities based on a combination of their market cap and current index membership. The Nasdaq Composite Index is a market capitalization-weighted index of more than 3,700 stocks listed on the Nasdaq stock exchange. Source: MSCI. MSCI makes no express or implied warranties or representations and shall have no liability whatsoever with respect to any MSCI data contained herein. The MSCI data may not be further redistributed or used as a basis for other indexes or any securities or financial products. This material is not approved, endorsed, reviewed or produced by MSCI. None of the MSCI data is intended to constitute investment advice or a recommendation to make (or refrain from making) any kind of investment decision and may not be relied on as such. The MSCI ACWI ex USA Small Cap Index is an unmanaged, capitalization weighted index of global small-cap stocks, excluding the United States. The MSCI ACWI ex USA Large Cap Index is an unmanaged, capitalization weighted index of global large-cap stocks, excluding the United States. The Nasdaq Composite Index is a market capitalization-weighted index of more than 3,700 stocks listed on the Nasdaq stock exchange. The performance of an index does not represent exactly any particular investment, as you cannot invest directly in an index.

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